The Energy Sector and the Political Stability of Regimes in the Caspian Area: A Comparison of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

funded by the Volkswagen Foundation,  April 2009 - June 2011, Head of project: Prof. Heiko Pleines

 

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Project description

The project has analysed the influence of a resource-based economic boom on the relationship between political and economic elites and the resulting political and socio-economic development of countries with authoritarian political regimes. It, therefore, starts with the traditional resource curse literature. Most of the literature on the resource curse is based on macrostatic analysis. As a result, it focuses on general causal links and tends to be (at least implicitly) deterministic.

Our project, however, has argued that the resource curse is not a curse in the sense of an unavoidable fate, but is the result of specific policy failures. Therefore, we prefer to speak of resource challenges. It then depends on the circumstances and the elites of specific countries whether and how these challenges are mastered or not. Accordingly, we decided to unbundle the resource curse into a set of resource challenges. We see the concept of resource challenges as a major innovation to the resource curse literature as it opens a new perspective by avoiding deterministic argumentations and bringing elite interaction and governance issues into the primary focus.

Based on the analytical framework the major resource challenges facing the Caspian states were identified. The respective policy fields were chosen for case studies. As a result the case studies cover policy issues, which are vital for the energy sector as well as for political regime stability and socio-economic development: (1) regulation of property rights and investment (concerning oil and gas resources), (2) management of financial flows from the energy sector, (3) policy towards corruption and (4) social policy (financed with oil money).

The case studies have been subjected to a comparative analysis in two steps. The first step provides a focused comparison of the major resource challenges in the three Caspian states and the second step offers a global perspective through a macro-statistical analysis of all modern resource economies.

The central part of the empirical project work has been the conduction of 60 elite interviews by project partners Kenan Aslanli in Azerbaijan and Tolganay Umbetalieva in Kazakhstan. As the full transcripts taken together are more than 500 pages long, the project team in Bremen has created short abstract and an index guide of the interviews for use in the case studies. In addition the project has updated and expanded a database of journalistic reporting, which now includes close to 500,000 records, i.e. individual pieces of news. Moreover, the project team in Bremen has compiled a broad range of macro-statistical time series data, covering over 100 indicators for nearly 80 resource economies. As a result, more than 9 GB of project related data are now easily accessible at the server of the Research Centre for East European Studies.


Publications

Pleines, Heiko / Wöstheinrich, Ronja (2016): The International–domestic Nexus in Anti-corruption Policy Making: The Case of Caspian Oil and Gas States, in: Europe-Asia Studies 68:2, 291-311.

Heinrich, Andreas / Pleines, Heiko (eds) (2012): Challenges of the Caspian resource boom. Domestic elites and policy-making, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan

Heinrich, Andreas/ Pleines, Heiko (2013): Weder Fluch noch Segen. Die Steuerung des Ölbooms im postsowjetischen Raum, in: OSTEUROPA 63 (7), pp.87-100

Heinrich, Andreas/ Pleines, Heiko (2012): Resource challenges. Die politische Dimension von Ölbooms, in: Neue Politische Literatur 57 (3), pp.443-477

Heinrich, Andreas / Pleines, Heiko (2012): Weder Fluch noch Segen. Die politischen Herausforderungen des Erdölbooms in Kasachstan, in: Zentralasien-Analysen No.57, pp.2-8

Heinrich, Andreas / Pleines, Heiko (2012): The Political Challenges of an Oil Boom. The Resource Curse and Political Stability in Russia, in: Russian Analytical Digest No.113, pp.2-8

Heinrich, Andreas / Pleines, Heiko (2012): Die politischen Herausforderungen eines Erdölbooms. Ressourcenfluch und politische Stabilität in Russland, in: Russland-Analysen No.240, pp.7-14

Kusznir, Julia (2011): Energiepolitik in Kasachstan, in: Osteuropa Wirtschaft 56:1-2, pp.18-33.

Umbetalijewa, Tolganay / Satpajew, Dosym (2011): Die Dynamik von Machterhalt und –nachfolge. Die politische Elite in Kasachstan und Perspektiven für den Machtwechsel, in: Zentralasien-Analysen No. 39, pp.2-8

Gagel, Aike (2011): Direktinvestitionen und Eigentumsrechte. Die Problematik von Enteignungen am Fallbeispiel des Ölsektors in Kasachstan, Working Papers and Materials of the Research Centre for East European Studies, No. 117

Heinrich, Andreas (2011): Challenges of a resource boom. Review of the literature, Working Papers and Materials of the Research Centre for East European Studies, No. 114, 57 pp.

Heinrich, Andreas (2011): The Formal Political System in Azerbaijan, in: Caucasus Analytical Digest No. 24, pp.2-5

Feil, Hauke (2010): Postkommunismus, Ressourcenreichtum und Autoritarismus: eine mögliche Korrelation? Der „resource curse“ und seine Folgen für die demokratischen Strukturen der ehemals kommunistischen Staaten in Europa und Asien, Arbeitspapiere und Materialien der Forschungsstelle Osteuropa, No. 111, 50 pp.

Heinrich, Andreas (2010): The Formal Political Systems of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. A background Study, Working Papers and Materials of the Research Centre for East European Studies, No. 107, 64 pp.

Ismayilov, Murad (2010): Continuity and change in Azerbaijan’s energy diplomacy, in: Caucasus Analytical Digest No. 16, pp.2-5

Aslanli, Kenan (2010): Oil and gas revenues management in Azerbaijan. Crude dependence and its consequences, in: Caucasus Analytical Digest No. 16, pp.8-12