Life after the end of a protest cycle: development paths of local protest in electoral authoritarian regimes. The case of Russia 2011-2016

PhD project of Jan Matti Dollbaum (2016-20), Supervisor: Prof. Heiko Pleines
 

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What keeps contention alive after large protest waves, particularly when public awareness shifts elsewhere and when the political regime grows more hostile to open challenges? Commonly, social movement studies (and protest research more generally) tend to focus on the factors that drive the upsurge of large waves of protest mobilization. This study takes a different approach: Based on the contentious politics framework and theories of path dependence in collective action, the study develops a comprehensive framework of mechanisms that shape continuity, change and decline of protest after the end of contentious cycles. In this, the project aims to link the insights produced by several fairly unconnected sub-disciplines: social movement studies, civil society research and the literature on the resilience of authoritarianism.

The review of the empirical evidence and the ensuing conceptualization concentrate on movements in electoral authoritarian regimes. Taking into account the specific political context of such polities, the study asks: What mechanisms explain diverging development paths of local protest (in terms of extent, topics and addressees) after the end of a contentious cycle? What specific roles do A) the initial mobilization, B) learning effects of movement actors, C) changes in the local context, and D) increased national regime support play in this process? At this point, the study also takes the national context into account: Acknowledging the importance of legitimacy and symbolic politics for regime resilience, the study examines in what way a national discourse focused on the legitimacy of the political leadership and a rise of citizens’ support for it can affect how local grievances are framed and to whom they are addressed.

Empirically, the study compares the development of protest activities in several cities within the Russian Federation – from the mobilization of the ‘for fair elections’ movement (2011-2012/13) until 2016. In the case studies, the project aims to connect the following explanatory factors in order to develop mechanisms that help explain diverging trajectories of local protest: (1) local structural conditions (e.g. the relative openness of political regimes, repressive capacities, or socio-economic structures), (2) activists’ strategies and perceptions, and (3) relations between activist groups and other actors. In addition, it takes into account (4) the recent changes in the Russian political discourse that are connected to the conflict with Ukraine – including the (temporary) rise in public support that several political institutions received in early 2014.